The first five hundred pieces of Mike Bloomberg mail

I admit it, I voted for Mike Bloomberg. I think it was the last one hundred mailings that won me over. Not that I read any of them. But there were so many it just had to be presidential. Liz Warren only sent a few, which I read. She had my vote for the first five hundred pieces of Bloomberg mail. But then came that last weekend before Election Day. I forgot to get the mail on Friday and then on Saturday the mail box burst with astonishing violence. Maybe you saw it in the news. All the neighbors thought it was the coronavirus. But no, it was Mike Bloomberg mailers. They never did find the mail delivery person. Somewhere under all those pictures of Mike Bloomberg I suppose. But that was enough for me. I waited in line for a day and a half and voted for Mike Bloomberg. But next time I’m voting for Phil Swift. A little dab of FlexSeal will fix anything.

Bernie’s disastrous showing in Vermont

If you really want to see the extent of Bernie’s problem this year, compare the results of the Vermont primary yesterday with those of 2016. Not the exit poll data, but the votes themselves. He won with 85% last time, or just shy of 116,000 votes. Yesterday, with 16,000 more Vermonters coming to the polls than in 2016, he got 50%, about 80,000 votes. In a four year span Bernie lost over 35,000 voters in his home state. That is, one of every three Bernie Sanders for president supporters in Vermont in 2016 voted for someone else this time. And that in a state that is 94% white and 1.3% African-American.

You can’t lose a full third of your base in your base and expect to win the presidency.

Goodbye to Nevada and all that

Bernie did great today and he did really well in Nevada last time too. I’m not sure if he matched today the numbers he got four years ago. But he was the only one this year who had an organization already in place. I would have been flabbergasted if he hadn’t done this well.

I don’t think you all appreciate just how catastrophically disorganized the Democrats are on the ground this year. Bernie’s ground game, as they call it, is a mess compared to say, Obama’s or even Jimmy Carter’s was 44 years ago. Yet Bernie’s is by far the best there is. There has been a complete breakdown in the way nomination campaigns are run this season. This is completely opposite the way that the Democrats ran their campaigns in 2018. You can’t even believe it’s the same party. I’m not sure what this means for the fall campaign.

This was only round one in Nevada, incidentally. Next round is the county conventions in March. The final round in April at the state convention. That’s when the delegates are chosen. Each round in 2016 was more bitter and angry than the one before. A lot of drinking was involved.

I think because nearly all the press are new on the beat the presidential election beat this year, they report each event as if it were the first time ever. I’ve never seen a campaign with so little sense of the past before. Indeed this might be the only thing you’ll see on the Nevada caucuses today that mentions 2016. It’ll certainly be the only one that mentions that until 1980 Nevada had a very competitive and very simple primary without any of this ridiculous caucus crap. I remember Jerry Brown won it in the wild 1976 campaign. But none of that ever happened apparently. Welcome to the Digital Age.

On now to South Carolina where Tom Steyer is likely to get the third most delegates. Like I said, welcome to the Digital Age.

2020 caucuses

I just looked at the 2020 Democratic schedule and only three states are holding caucuses this year. Iowa’s is still melting under the media glare. Nevada (36 delegates), if they’re using their traditional three step, three month process might see the same sort of press and social media cataclysm that leveled Iowa (41 delegates). I remember when Nevada used to have a primary. Wyoming (14 delegates) will likely be too late in the season and too small a game to notice. Only three non-state caucuses are happening this year: American Samoa (6 delegates), Guam (7) and the Virgin Islands (7), each of which might find themselves under the glare of media due to the magic of Twitter. It’s Twitter that fueled the hysteria over Iowa, incidentally. Every second—probably quite literally every second—a breaking news item was tweeted by a vast herd of reporters on the ground or in the ether. And just for old times sake the Northern Marianas will be selecting their six delegates to the Democratic National Convention at a territorial convention, just like in The Man Who Killed Liberty Valence.

Democratic debates in the eye of the storm

I don’t know how people can stand watching nomination debates. They are ludicrous. And then all the next day arguing on their finer points is even sillier. We have a president who is disintegrating with dementia and has absolute control of the workings of his Administration, a desperate impeachment battle that is an existential threat to that demented president, corruption beyond belief orchestrated by the Oval Office and being exposed daily if not hourly, a Mid East situation unraveling as fast as electrons can travel and fifty hydrogen bombs being held as pawns by the Turkish strongman….and we have people bickering over who said what in another almost entirely meaningless Democratic debate. A lot of woke people need to wake the fuck up.

Democratic debates in the eye of the storm

I don’t know how people can stand watching nomination debates. They are ludicrous. And then all the next day arguing on their finer points is even sillier. We have a president who is disintegrating with dementia and has absolute control of the workings of his Administration, a desperate impeachment battle that is an existential threat to that demented president, corruption beyond belief orchestrated by the Oval Office and being exposed daily if not hourly, a Mid East situation unraveling as fast as electrons can travel and fifty hydrogen bombs being held as pawns by the Turkish strongman….and we have people bickering over who said what in another almost entirely meaningless Democratic debate. A lot of woke people need to wake the fuck up.

Meanwhile at the Democratic debate…

I seem to recall that there are women running for President too.

As long as there is a woman candidate as good or better than any of the men running I have no intention of voting for a man in the Democratic primary. It’s time for a woman president. Twitter and Facebook seem to have forgotten this in the collective rush to support any man running. This has suddenly become the most testosterone charged nomination race I can remember, and it’s not the candidates’ fault, it’s social media. People will vote for anybody, it seems, and give money to anybody, as long as it has a cock.

Blue Wave

Thrilled to see we won the House in a blue wave, despite James Carville. Did better than I thought in Senate, and way better with governors. Can’t wait to see state house results. I thought Nelson would and Gillum might win, sad, thought Kemp’s suppression would work, it did (decisively), and thought Beto would lose by 6 percent at least, maybe even ten. The Dems are back in the Midwest, Texas Mexican-Americans are finally voting like California Mexican-Americans (it’ll be azul in a decade) and they are a force in Arizona and Colorado, and I think it was Indians who nearly elected a Democrat governor in South Dakota. There are a hundred women in the House, millennials voted in vast herds, California is bluer then fuck, and while a Nazi was the only surviving Republican in Iowa’s congressional delegation, a Democrat won in Oklahoma and Kansas isn’t Kansas anymore.

Basically we kicked Trump’s ass from here to the Florida state line. That squishing you hear is the worm, turning.

We will not turn red voters into blue. We will just have to outlive them.

Someone last night said that in that Georgia race the turn out was high for both Democrat and Republicans, but that the district just had more Republicans (and Republican leaning independents) than Democrats (and Democrat leaning independents). Still, though, it was close. Their side had only a few more votes than our side. I want to see the age data, though. If their side had lots more of the older voters than our side, and we had lots more of the younger voters than their side, then every election cycle in that district there will be less of their voters. This is how districts shift. This is how Glendale, California, for instance, went from being solid Republican to solid Democrat in twenty years. The Republican majority died off. Right now there are still lots of Baby Boomers around. Baby Boomers, despite their Woodstock image, are the most conservative generation since the 1920’s. It’s they who provide the winning margins to Trump and Trumpist candidates. And they are at that wonderful age where they vote as if their lives depended on it. Old people vote way more than young people and even more than middle aged people. That is a basic rule of American politics–old people just love to vote. Boomers are in their late fifties to early seventies now, a giant grey haired demographic bubble of a voting machine. Hence, we have Donald Trump. And wherever there’s a district full of Boomers, Trumpism will prevail. But it can’t last. It can’t even last a decade. Boomers are dying off, and will begin dying off faster and faster. And those rotten kids coming up to replace them are the most left wing bunch since the New Deal. So in the short run there will be lots of disappointments, a lot of elections where Democrats think they could win but get beaten by a wave of silver hairs who almost never miss the chance to vote. Add in the effects of voter suppression by the GOP and it just gives them an even better edge. It’s going to take ten or twenty years before this Trump cancer is eliminated from the body politic. He’ll be long dead and he will still have followers. But eventually they will disappear. In the short term those opposed to him, being that we vote less often than they do because we tend to be younger, will have to make extraordinary get out the vote efforts. Demographics more than any other factor drive voting trends, and voting trends decide elections. You will continue to be disappointed that we cannot seem to win over red districts. But there will be fewer and fewer red districts as the years go by. In the short term, unfortunately, Trump will do incredible damage. I wish there was way to avoid that short of waiting till 2020, but there isn’t. Even if he were to be removed from office, his people would still fill a Pence Administration, nor would a rock ribbed Indiana conservative like Pence make any move to undo much of Trump’s legacy. We are stuck with this for three more years, and it will take an extraordinary get out the vote effort and unity on our part to excise this monstrosity from the body politic. There will be no revolution, no magic wand, nor will Republicans decide they agree with everything we believe in and join us. We will not turn red voters into blue. We will just have to outlive them.