Four days after the 2014 midterms

There’s an excellent piece by Jamelle Bouie in Slate today, The Disunited States of America, about the midterm voters versus the general election voters. It’s longish, which means, sadly, few will finish the piece before they begin attacking it in the comments section. Which is too bad, because Bouie does a fine job explaining the natures of midterm voters and non-voters and how that difference has set us up for a gridlocked, dysfunctional Congress term after term. Basically, the proportion of older, white, male, well off, conservative voters is significantly higher in the off year (that is, midterm) elections, with everyone else piling in for the general. Which means that the presidents will likely remain Democrat over all, and the senate will slowly shift blue as conservative Republican senators elected in off year elections are beaten six years later as the GOP base gradually, well, dies off. Gradually at first anyway. Once they hit their eighties they disappear as a voting block. That is happening now, though it won’t start becoming noticeable in a big way, I imagine, in four years. That’s the thing about life expectancy, people don’t live much past it. However, the House of Representatives, gerrymandered all to hell, will stay red for a long time. Continue reading

The day after the 2014 midterms

I hate to be a downer to all the panic stricken and paranoid out there, but there is a Democratic president, you’ll remember, and therefore not a damn crazy thing the GOP does will be made law. None of it. So relax. And the senate map in 2016 is worse for the GOP than this year was for the Demos, Demo turnout will be much higher. If we had kept the senate this year–and there wasn’t a chance of that, look at the map–nothing would get done because the GOP held the House. And now nothing will get done because the GOP holds both houses. Obama is a lame duck now and as always in a lame duck presidency nothing significant gets done legislatively the last two years. There will be a lot of speechifying by Republicans trying to outflank each other on the right, and a lot of executive orders coming out of the White House. Standard operating procedure anymore.

If anyone told you the Democrats could hold the Senate this year they were either deluded or lying. There was not a chance in hell of that happening. All you have to do is look at the map of states with senate races, and compare it to the map of states who gave their electoral votes to Romney. If they voted for Romney, it wasn’t too likely that the voters would pick one of Obama’s senate allies. And considering that so many Democratic voters can’t get off their asses in a midterm and bother to vote–though they are all over Facebook now, those people, shrieking–the odds against a Democratic candidate were that much longer. This is always the case in midterms. Older voters go to the polls, younger are too busy, apparently. White voters go the polls, other colors are too busy. Men go to the polls, more women are too busy. Older white males are the core of the GOP. You can’t blame them for voting for their party of choice. You should turn your ire against those that couldn’t be bothered. A few seats in battleground states, in Maryland, in Colorado, would have stayed blue, but Democrats are lazy voters. Continue reading

2012: Darn those petards

Saw a story on Slate today, about Mitt Romney and his 47% comments. Imagine being saddled with that for the rest of your life. But then he’s rich so the hell with him. Just kidding. He’s a job creator. But that Slate story reminded me of a piece I found that I’d written the day after the election that discusses that very same percentage point, 47%. (the final was Obama 51.1%, Romney 47.2%). I published it on the blog back on November 7th and promptly forgot about it. It’s old news now, a nearly forgotten story and almost entirely irrelevant…but here it is anyway.

Well, not quite half of America.
Well, not quite half of America.
Looking at the votes still being counted in the west, it’s looking like Romney’s final vote national tally will come to 47% Maybe I’m wrong, but some quick math and county projections (using a calculator and the CNN interactive map) sure make it looks like Mitt Romney got the support of 47%, just not the 47% he wanted.The talk today about just how close an election this was is not borne out when you include the votes from the Pacific coast. Romney got creamed out here, and the popular vote was not anywhere near as close as the Media is insisting today. Right now Obama has a lead of about 2.75 million. By the time the rest of the west coast is tabulated I suspect Obama’s lead will be more in the four million range (it was actually just shy of five million). That’s over three percentage points. Maybe I’m wrong, but the counties on the coast that are less than 100% tabulated (some barely half counted) are running anywhere from 1.5 to 1 up to 4 to 1  for Obama, and all are significant population centers.. That’s where that extra million and a half Obama votes come from. This pushed Obama well over 50%. Right now he is at 51%. This will only rise as the last votes are counted. Continue reading