Republicans can’t live forever

Scanning Google News this morning I saw this:

Half of Republicans back limits on carbon emissions, poll finds.

That’s a shocker of a headline, considering how the GOP leadership talks. They’re still pretending that this global warming thing is no big deal, that it’ll blow over. But it looks like the GOP rank and file is not so deluded (or bought) and is beginning to turn around. I haven’t seen the polling data, but my guess is that it’s probably not so much a change of heart among GOP global warming deniers. It’s just that the old timers are dying off and the younger ones being more realistic. The GOP is a very old party as far as member age goes, and they are experiencing a rapid die-off of their original Reagan voters. It will probably begin changing its ideology quickly as the old timers disappear. This happened to the Democrats too, with the end of the New Deal generation. As the FDR voters began dying off, the conservative vote grew in proportion. The New Democrats, far more accommodating to the Reagan Administration than the New Dealers ever would have been, replaced them. We know how that turned out. But now it’s the Republican’s turn to die off…though it’s taking longer as old people live longer now than in 1980 (a whole election cycle longer, in fact.) Periodically in American history there will be these decisive “sea change” elections when the population dramatically changes party and ideology. 1932 was one, 1980 another. Generally things change again as that original sea change generation dies off. We’re on the cusp of that now. Obama’s re-election was proof that it was beginning. Millennials are the most leftist generation there has been in this country since 1932, far more leftist than the vaunted baby boomers (that is, those of us born between 1946 and 1964 and who split close to 50/50 between liberals and conservatives). Within a decade it will be the Millennials’ turn to reset the American political landscape for the next half a century, and that is catastrophic news for conservatives. All those rotten hipsters we are decrying all the time, they’re gonna be the salvation of the country. They will be the ones who demolish the Reagan Revolution and reduce income disparity and get this country back on track. It ain’t gonna be us baby boomers. Half of us voted for Reagan, twice.

hipster beards

Say what you want, but they never voted for Reagan.

 

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Four days after the 2014 midterms

There’s an excellent piece by Jamelle Bouie in Slate today, The Disunited States of America, about the midterm voters versus the general election voters. It’s longish, which means, sadly, few will finish the piece before they begin attacking it in the comments section. Which is too bad, because Bouie does a fine job explaining the natures of midterm voters and non-voters and how that difference has set us up for a gridlocked, dysfunctional Congress term after term. Basically, the proportion of older, white, male, well off, conservative voters is significantly higher in the off year (that is, midterm) elections, with everyone else piling in for the general. Which means that the presidents will likely remain Democrat over all, and the senate will slowly shift blue as conservative Republican senators elected in off year elections are beaten six years later as the GOP base gradually, well, dies off. Gradually at first anyway. Once they hit their eighties they disappear as a voting block. That is happening now, though it won’t start becoming noticeable in a big way, I imagine, in four years. That’s the thing about life expectancy, people don’t live much past it. However, the House of Representatives, gerrymandered all to hell, will stay red for a long time. Continue reading

The day after the 2014 midterms

I hate to be a downer to all the panic stricken and paranoid out there, but there is a Democratic president, you’ll remember, and therefore not a damn crazy thing the GOP does will be made law. None of it. So relax. And the senate map in 2016 is worse for the GOP than this year was for the Demos, Demo turnout will be much higher. If we had kept the senate this year–and there wasn’t a chance of that, look at the map–nothing would get done because the GOP held the House. And now nothing will get done because the GOP holds both houses. Obama is a lame duck now and as always in a lame duck presidency nothing significant gets done legislatively the last two years. There will be a lot of speechifying by Republicans trying to outflank each other on the right, and a lot of executive orders coming out of the White House. Standard operating procedure anymore.

If anyone told you the Democrats could hold the Senate this year they were either deluded or lying. There was not a chance in hell of that happening. All you have to do is look at the map of states with senate races, and compare it to the map of states who gave their electoral votes to Romney. If they voted for Romney, it wasn’t too likely that the voters would pick one of Obama’s senate allies. And considering that so many Democratic voters can’t get off their asses in a midterm and bother to vote–though they are all over Facebook now, those people, shrieking–the odds against a Democratic candidate were that much longer. This is always the case in midterms. Older voters go to the polls, younger are too busy, apparently. White voters go the polls, other colors are too busy. Men go to the polls, more women are too busy. Older white males are the core of the GOP. You can’t blame them for voting for their party of choice. You should turn your ire against those that couldn’t be bothered. A few seats in battleground states, in Maryland, in Colorado, would have stayed blue, but Democrats are lazy voters. Continue reading

Scottish Independence–my instant armchair analysis

I think the No vote will win in Scotland today. But it’s a pyrrhic victory for the UK. Nearly half of Scotland wants independence. And they want a republic. That is a body slam not only to Great Britain, but also to the concept of the monarchy. Watch where the No vote predominated. If it was in the rural and small town regions, then that is not a tenable majority. Urban populations are increasing, and rural regions decreasing. Urban voters are always more leftist and anti-monarchial than rural and small town voters. And also wait for the exit poll data. If the under thirties voted Yes, then you can see future trends. And if people under thirty do not have any loyalty to the monarchy, they will not likely fall in love with the idea of a king or queen when they hit middle age. Loyalty to a monarch is something you are raised on, not something you suddenly develop in middle age.

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Progressive Tea Party

Just read another intellectual hyperbolic scree on Facebook against the news media, about how it’s always against the true Americans, how it always lies, how it is twisted in favor of the other side. Pure Tea Party anti-press paranoia. Only this came from the Left.  More and more the same paranoid, intolerant, self-delusional memes that  drive the right are infecting the left. I see this everyday from people I know on Facebook.

He wasn’t just condemning FoxNews…he was condemning all media. It made no sense, he was just yelling. But he got a long list of equally verbose and intelligent comments agreeing with and adding to his nonsense. It was like reading the comments on FoxNews.com or Yahoo News, but through the looking glass and spell checked.. I’d stepped into a hole and fallen up, and progressives were screaming just like the Tea Partiers scream, but backwards. Inside out. Continue reading

Shutting down the government and eating their own

A couple weeks ago while looking over the comments on Politico and Yahoo News–both popular with the Tea Party–I saw the war cry “Primary the French Republicans!” I could figure out that the noun “primary” had been verbed into a shorthand for running a Tea Party candidate against a traditional Republican in the primary election–a tactic that has worked already in the past four years. But I couldn’t figure out what the hell a French Republican was, not in the context of American conservative politics.I googled around and found the source. I’ve linked it below. You can see what it is that has split and terrified the mainstream Republican conservatiuves….the Tea Party have turned jacobin, radical, declaring war on anyone in their own party ranks who they consider not extreme enough. They’ve taken Barry Goldwater’s slogan from his acceptance speech at the 1964 Republican convention–“I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!”– and turned it into an argument against anybody who quails at the notion of defaulting on the federal budget and shutting down the federal government. Obamacare is the road to socialist (even nazi) ruin, they say.  Obamacare means the beginning of the end of American liberty. Hence the Goldwater quote–which probably doomed the Goldwater campaign from the start, just those two sentences–applies, if you think like a Tea Party member.

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A massacre in Cairo

(July 8, 2013)

So several dozen pro-Morsi protesters were gunned down in cold blood by the Egyptian army. And the military reacts by shutting down the Muslim Brotherhood’s headquarters and, I assume, arresting more of its members. It has begun.

And this wasn’t a coup, you all said. This was democracy in action. This was the will of the people. A glorious victory for the universal cause of human rights.

I wonder if your outburst of sympathy and solidarity with the “Egyptian people” on Facebook and across the social media universe might have helped encourage the ridiculous and tragic illusion that EVERYONE wanted Morsi thrown out. Everyone.  Continue reading

A coup is a coup is a coup.

(July 4, 2013)

Q: When is a coup not a coup?
A: When it is democracy.
Q: And when is democracy not democracy?
A: When you don’t like who won.A coup is a coup is a coup. The Egyptian people–that is, the half of the Egyptian people who are the anti-Morsi opposition–could have waited till the next election. That’s how democracy works. It doesn’t work with tanks rolling and jets screaming and soldiers arresting hundreds of people whose names are on carefully prepared lists. Arresting them on political charges, that is, what they did legally under the constitution is suddenly illegal because the military says so. Nor does democracy work when the military seizes television stations and pulls their news coverage off the air, or when it prevents a newspaper from printing. It can’t work with any of these things happening. Let’s not get carried away calling a military coup a victory for the people. It is a coup d’etat, pure and simple. A government is elected. The military removes the government, arrests the leaders, shuts down any media that opposes it. If you can explain how this is not a coup I’d love to hear it.And what if the Muslim Brotherhood wins the next election? Another coup? Or will they be banned from running? Democracy is such a messy business. Thank god for generals.

OK, I misspoke. I said another coup. I meant another not-a-coup. The UnCoup. This was the 7-Up to Pinochet’s cola. The difference is that Pinochet was a vicious fascist of the worse sort while this thing yesterday in Egypt was, I’m told, one of these coup-like things that is actually democracy, but without all that voting nonsense. Think Czechoslovakia’s Velvet Revolution, and the new President is Egyptian Vaclav Havel. Except that the Czechs overthrew a communist dictatorship forced upon them by Stalin in 1947 (and again by his Stalin’s successors in 1968). And Vaclav Havel was elected, in accordance with a brand new constitution. Much like Morsi was. Not that I’m comparing the two men. But they were both elected democratically, within the respective system.

I’m told I’m confused, it’s not a coup, and you can’t believe the western media sources who keep insisting it was a coup. That it was democracy. in action.  But what if I believe Al Jazeera, who are not a western media source.They called it a coup. And the Egyptian military yanked them right off the air. So am I supposed to believe the social media, or Al Jazeera? Was it good that Al Jazeera was taken off the air, along with several other Egyptian television news programs and a newspaper? Though to be honest, Al Jazeera wasn’t pulled off the air for calling a coup a coup. They weren’t given the chance. They were on the military’s list of media outlets to pull off the air. The military knew that Al Jazeera, being honest journalists, would call a coup a coup. And a free press is a dangerous thing when double think is called for. War is peace, you remember from your high school Orwell, and freedom is slavery. Well this was nothing that scary and  far-fetched, but still, calling a coup democracy is doublespeak if I ever heard it. And Al Jazeera was not going to say a coup is democracy.

I read all the commentary on Facebook and Twitter and I’ve seen some amazing and spontaneous websites on Egypt that have popped up like mushrooms after a spring shower. They are all so passionate and excited. Yet none can explain away how the military overthrowing a democratically elected government is not a coup. I read their complaints about the Morsi government–which really was proving itself utterly incompetent and even repressive in some ways–but I keep thinking that they should have tried to defeat Morsi in the upcoming election. As planned. Following the processes laid out in their brand new constitution. That’s how democracy works. Cheering on the military as it arrests the current government is not how democracy  works. Ever.

And you know, there is nothing that prevents the same Muslim Brotherhood from winning the next presidential election. What then? The Muslim Brotherhood was the only cohesive political organization in the country. They’ve been around for nearly a century. The opposition has virtually no organization. Just some barely organized parties, most of whom seem to spend all their time fighting with one another. If they can’t somehow get organized they will keep losing elections. That’s a basic rule of politics. A fact of life. You can talk all you want but if all you do is talk you’ll lose elections. And keep relying on the military to undo the results for you.

This is close to the same situation as in Turkey….a conservative electorate voted in an Islamic government. The military stepped in and kept them from power. After a spell new elections were scheduled. The muslim party won again, and the military is itching to remove them. We’ll see how the protests run in Istanbul. If they undermine the government, it’ll be a military dictatorship again. Facebook won’t know which way to turn. It doesn’t do tragic irony well. There’s no Like-but-I-don’t-Like button.

Democracy in the Islamic world means Islamic parties can win elections. This is why American conservatives are so down on the Arab Spring. They prefer military governments remain in control. Which, ironically, means that they and the Occupy people finally agree on something. It’s also ironic hearing people professing their love of the Fourth Amendment in this country while defending a military coup in another. Please like my I Love Military Rule page.

I’m not saying deposing the Muslim Brotherhood was not necessarily a good thing. But let’s cut the doublespeak crap and call it what it is….a military coup. This is pure realpolitik here, and it shouldn’t be dolled up in pseudo-democratic finery to make us all feel better. As for the Egyptians, they’ll regret it when the army moves in and takes out the next government it doesn’t like. That same army will begin shooting down pro-Morsi protesters soon. What then?

2012: Darn those petards

Saw a story on Slate today, about Mitt Romney and his 47% comments. Imagine being saddled with that for the rest of your life. But then he’s rich so the hell with him. Just kidding. He’s a job creator. But that Slate story reminded me of a piece I found that I’d written the day after the election that discusses that very same percentage point, 47%. (the final was Obama 51.1%, Romney 47.2%). I published it on the blog back on November 7th and promptly forgot about it. It’s old news now, a nearly forgotten story and almost entirely irrelevant…but here it is anyway.

Well, not quite half of America.
Well, not quite half of America.
Looking at the votes still being counted in the west, it’s looking like Romney’s final vote national tally will come to 47% Maybe I’m wrong, but some quick math and county projections (using a calculator and the CNN interactive map) sure make it looks like Mitt Romney got the support of 47%, just not the 47% he wanted.The talk today about just how close an election this was is not borne out when you include the votes from the Pacific coast. Romney got creamed out here, and the popular vote was not anywhere near as close as the Media is insisting today. Right now Obama has a lead of about 2.75 million. By the time the rest of the west coast is tabulated I suspect Obama’s lead will be more in the four million range (it was actually just shy of five million). That’s over three percentage points. Maybe I’m wrong, but the counties on the coast that are less than 100% tabulated (some barely half counted) are running anywhere from 1.5 to 1 up to 4 to 1  for Obama, and all are significant population centers.. That’s where that extra million and a half Obama votes come from. This pushed Obama well over 50%. Right now he is at 51%. This will only rise as the last votes are counted. Continue reading