Seriously, Trump probably believes that.

His approval rating is down to 35%, while 43% want impeachment proceedings to begin. He responds by turning more and more to his base, that 35%. I suspect he believes that the reason the 43% is bigger than his 35% is because it’s composed in large part of Californians and illegal aliens, seriously, he probably thinks that, and that there are more voters and real Americans in his base than not. These polls are MSM lies, fake news, he says, or FAKE NEWS!!!! It’s obvious following his tweets that he gets nearly all of his news from Drudge and Breitbart and their ilk, and that is his reality, and these poll numbers mean nothing. His tweets and policies and appointments will get more and more strident and offensive, and he’ll do more of his Trump Country rallies before crowds of fanatical supporters who perceive things exactly as he does. One third of the country and our president live in an internet reality where facts are only what they care to believe, no one is there to counter them in their beliefs, and Trump is winning victory after resounding victory, the most successful president ever. Sad.

The polls and Donald Trump, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Mixed Up Republicans

I keep hearing that Donald Trump is sweeping America. A lot of Democrats are freaking out. There’s no reason to. You just need to remember that while Trump is leading the Republican candidates with–by far–the most support, that support is still just a minority of Republican voters. Let’s look at some numbers:

There are about 170 million registered voters in the United States. About 55 million of them are registered as Republicans, 72 million as Democrats and 42 million as independents. The latter don’t count right now, because they are not included in the polling during the primaries. Well, they do count in those theoretical match ups (Trump v Hillary, Carson v Sanders, Stassen v McCarthy) but those are so hypothetical, and there is so much time before November of 2016, that they are pretty meaningless. The only polls that have any significance now–and even that is pretty weak–are polls showing the percentage of party member who say they will vote for a certain candidate. And there are two types of those. There are the polls of registered voters by party nationwide, and polls of registered voters by state. The national polls give a general idea of how a candidate is doing, the state polls give an idea of how a state’s primary or caucus vote would break down were the primary election or caucus held today. Caucuses, though, are so obscure and complex and unrepresentative that accurate polling of their results is almost worthless. You can poll Iowa and get an idea of which candidate people prefer, but that does not mean that is how the caucus results will turn out. Any of the polls you see on Iowa may or may not have any relation to the outcome on caucus night. Iowa caucuses are notoriously surprising. (Personally, I think Bernie Sanders will win. No clue on the Republican side.) Polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina will be more accurate, but still, you have to see a series of polls to see if they compare. If they trend one way or the other, you’ll get an idea of how the primary results might well turn out. Continue reading