The polls and Donald Trump, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Mixed Up Republicans

Posted on September 13, 2015 by Brick Wahl

I keep hearing that Donald Trump is sweeping America. A lot of Democrats are freaking out. There’s no reason to. You just need to remember that while Trump is leading the Republican candidates with–by far–the most support, that support is still just a minority of Republican voters. Let’s look at some numbers:

There are about 170 million registered voters in the United States. About 55 million of them are registered as Republicans, 72 million as Democrats and 42 million as independents. The latter don’t count right now, because they are not included in the polling during the primaries. Well, they do count in those theoretical match ups (Trump v Hillary, Carson v Sanders, Stassen v McCarthy) but those are so hypothetical, and there is so much time before November of 2016, that they are pretty meaningless. The only polls that have any significance now–and even that is pretty weak–are polls showing the percentage of party member who say they will vote for a certain candidate. And there are two types of those. There are the polls of registered voters by party nationwide, and polls of registered voters by state. The national polls give a general idea of how a candidate is doing, the state polls give an idea of how a state’s primary or caucus vote would break down were the primary election or caucus held today. Caucuses, though, are so obscure and complex and unrepresentative that accurate polling of their results is almost worthless. You can poll Iowa and get an idea of which candidate people prefer, but that does not mean that is how the caucus results will turn out. Any of the polls you see on Iowa may or may not have any relation to the outcome on caucus night. Iowa caucuses are notoriously surprising. (Personally, I think Bernie Sanders will win. No clue on the Republican side.) Polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina will be more accurate, but still, you have to see a series of polls to see if they compare. If they trend one way or the other, you’ll get an idea of how the primary results might well turn out. Continue reading →

The real campaign

Posted on July 1, 2015 by Brick Wahl

“Obama still was able to convey a sense of progressiveness and realness that was nonetheless very exciting. You don’t think of the middle as being an exciting place…”

Depends on your point or view. Most candidates on the left of the Democratic party have been spinning essentially the same hackneyed ideas since Adlai Stevenson, just as those on the right of the GOP are still tossing the same raw meat that was tossed to their ancestors in the fifties. Almost invariably new ideas come from the center, where workable plans have to be developed out of compromise. On either end of the spectrum the candidates know there’s no real hope of attaining almost anything they promise so they promise the moon because the audience out there loves it and to be honest doesn’t care if any of it ever passes or not, they’re just there for the show. Only twice in the last hundred years has revolutionary reform been possible after an election: under FDR and then under Reagan. After that you have various candidates pretending it’s 1932 and 1980 again respectively. Just like now, with Bernie Sanders on our side making impossible to implement proposals and nearly all of the GOP cast of crazies on their side promising to do exactly what Sam Brownback is doing to Kansas now. It’s complete crap on both sides, but it’s good theater, and it sure gets Facebook worked up. But you ask any of these Bernie Sanders fans just how his proposals will be implemented in real life they will not be able to answer…nor will they care. And it goes without saying that the GOP is the same. This campaign is not about change, it’s about show biz. Once the press begins focusing on Bernie Sanders for viable explanations for how to pass, fund and implement his proposals, that’s when it gets hard. Right now he and all the GOP are playing to Facebook. This is still recess. The real campaign hasn’t even started.

Progressive scorecard

Posted on June 29, 2015 by Brick Wahl

1968. The Democratic party, bitterly divided between liberals and way liberals, blows up.

1972. George McGovern is elected in a landslide victory and America is changed forever.

1984. Water Mondale is elected in a landslide victory and America is changed forever.

1988. Michael Dukakis is elected in a landslide victory and America is changed forever.

2000. Voters, disgusted at Al Gore’s sell out conservatism, elect Ralph Nader in a landslide victory and American is changed forever.

2004. John Kerry is elected in a landslide victory and American is changed forever.

2008. Barack Obama, reaching out to black and moderate voters, is defeated in a landslide and America is unchanged forever.

2012. See 2008, but way worse even.

2016. Bernie Sanders is elected in a landslide victory and America is changed forever.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Convergence

Posted on June 27, 2015 by Brick Wahl

Wow. Twelve declared Republican presidential candidates as of today, and another four expected. Sixteen total. That’s seems nuts.

But thinking back to my college days when I had dreams of being another Theodore White and read every campaign history I could lay my hands on, I remember doing a rather long paper on the 1976 presidential election campaign. It’s probably stuffed in a box around here somewhere. That was the first election after Watergate, and the Democrats had blown the GOP to smithereens in the previous midterms. Watergate, you’ll remember. If you were a Democrat and breathing you were elected that year. And as 1976 approached, the excitement was too much for many Democrats and fifteen of them declared themselves candidates for president, and another sixteen considered but decided against it, which means at one point over thirty Democrats were picturing themselves in the Oval Office, signing bills and giving orders. I’ve seen no list yet of the Republicans who were thinking about running this year but changed their minds. But if the last four Republicans expected to announce this year do join the herd, they will have officially beat by one candidate the Democrat’s total in 1976, which I believe was the most ever. That was a helluva campaign on the Democratic side, the 1976 nomination race. Fast paced, fluid, full of surprises. The histories–I remember reading two of them, though the titles escape me–read like fast paced novels. The underdog, a peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter, won in a happy ending that made Americans feel warm all over. It was the most exciting election since 1968, the histories of which (An American Melodrama was one) also read like a novel, though a tragic one, full of death and betrayal, the ending just sad. Continue reading →

Cuba libre

Posted on December 18, 2014 by Brick Wahl

Alpha 66 is not happy.

The U.S. embargo of Cuba is pretty inexplicable. We have close relations with Viet Nam. We may have more direct connections with North Korea than we do with Cuba. Why have we continued this ridiculous embargo and non-recognition so long? Fidel tossed Batista (and the Mob) out in 1959. That was 55 years ago.

Because of Florida, that’s why. Specifically because of Florida on two days every four years. One of those days is the Republican presidential primary. The other is the day we vote for president. By an accident of political geography, it’s been impossible for a presidential candidate to say that as president he would lift the embargo and exchange ambassadors with Cuba without committing political suicide. Continue reading →

Brick's Politics

Politics and current events without memes.

Category Archives: 2016 presidential election